This is what Zbignew Brzezinski, the foreign policy adviser to the President of the United States Jimmy Carter, stated during a hearing at the Senate of the United States of America.
Brzezinski, an American expert of global issues born in Poland -and so aware of politics of Central Eastern Europe- urged the United States, along with other NATO allies such as United Kingdom, Germany and France, to pre-position military companies in Estonia and Latvia in order to deter Russian military aggression toward the Baltic States.
Brzezinski, by observing the Russian army continually violating Estonian and Latvian air spaces, and considering the Russian Administration repeatedly provoking Estonian and Latvian Governments, predicted, over the next years, a Russian seize of Tallinn and Riga, the capitals of Estonia and Latvia respectively.
According to Brzezinski, in his move of invading Estonia and Latvia, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, could be discouraged only if the United States and NATO would reinforce their military presence in former USSR states which are now part of both the European Union and NATO with a direct border to Russia.
Brzezinski argued that the presence of a small NATO contingent in the Baltic States does not represent any threat to Russia, but will eventually give Putin a clear demonstration that Estonia and Latvia are part of the Trans Atlantic Community, and will be defended by NATO in case of military aggression.
During the hearing, Brzezinski also urged the United States and the European Union to give military support to Ukraine in order to allow the Ukrainian people to defend itself from Russian military invasion.
At the same time, Brzezinski argued the necessity to freeze any rapprochement of Ukraine towards NATO in order not to give Putin any motivation to further occupy the east of Ukraine.
Brzezinski's statement is so well argued that it sounds prophetic and far-sighted.
The invasion of Estonia and Latvia by Russia is all but an hypothetical geopolitical event. Apart from this, as Brzezinski noticed, only one year ago nobody really anticipated that one day Putin would land military personnel in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.
Brzezinski's statement shows how the strengthening of NATO eastern flank must be a priority for the whole Trans Atlantic Community.
The permanence of NATO military companies in the Baltic States and other countries of Central Eastern Europe, as well as the realization of a NATO Spatial Shield in Central Europe -with a radar station in Turkey and rotating ballistic interceptors in Poland and Rumania- are measures needed to guarantee the national security of the whole Trans Atlantic Community from two of the most dangerous global threats to the western civilization, such as Putin's Russia and the ISIL.
Last but not least, Brzezinski's conviction about a probable Russian military aggression towards Estonia and Latvia over the next years must make the Trans Atlantic Community radically change its leadership on Russian issues.
The axis of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande demonstrated itself to be too incline to compromise with Russia, even when Putin repeatedly violated the international law.
On the contrary, the European Union needs to be more integrated within the Trans Atlantic Community. Therefore, Merkel and Hollande should let the guide of the diplomatic initiative of the west towards Russia to the President of the United States, Barack Obama, and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron.
An assertive diplomatic initiative towards Russia led by Obama and Cameron, eventually along with the President of the European Council Donald Tusk, a Polish that knows the situation in Central Eastern Europe better than other top representatives of the European Union, is both a dream and a provocation.
However, Brzezinski's warning about a Russian invasion of Estonia and Latvia is a provocation too. And the need for the west to guarantee the political independence of Ukraine, in order to contain Russian imperialism over the next centuries, was another "provocation" of Brzezinski which, in the end, demonstrated itself to be real and true.
Matteo Cazzulani,Analyst of Trans Atlantic, Central Eastern Europe and energy issues,@MatteoCazzulani
