Turkey and the gas balance of power
Turkish government suspended Iranian gas supplies after an explosion occurred after a PKK terrorist attack. The contractual deal as a theme which can lead Ankara to establish new energetic relationship with Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia.
The Kurdish terrorism and the Iran contractual pressure are shaking turkish energetic policy. On Friday the 10/19 an explosion occurred between the towns of Agri and Erzurum, in the south-east of Turkey, caused a gas supplies stop from Iran.
According to Platts news agency, Ankara, which carries from Teheran 10 bmc of gas per year, condemned the explosion as a terroristic act made by PKK Kurdish terrorists.
In order to balance national gas supplies, Turkish national energetic company Botas asked the Russia major Gazprom to double gas supplies from Russia: from 32 mcm to 48 mcm per year.
A similar episode in Turkey occurred three weeks ago, when 6,6 bcm of Azeri gas supplies' stream via Southern Caucasian Pipeline was interrupted. Although British concern BP sentenced the gas supplies interruption has been caused by works on the pipeline, Ankara accused the Kurdish terrorism, and once again asked Moscow to increase Russian supplies.
These interruptions are strictly lied also with a contractual deal. Turkey wants to remove from the energetic agreement with Iran the take or pay clause, which obliges Turkish government to pay for a maximum of gas supplies despite of its effective utilization.
The Turkish position is probably a political support to EU gas boycott on Iranian gas supplies, approved by Bruxelles in order to punish Teheran for its nuclear non-authorized project.
The same argument about take or pay clause Turkey advanced about new gas supplies contract with Azerbaijan, even if energetic relationships between Turkish and Azeri government are quite good.
Both Ankara and Baku administrations co-work in the TANAP pipeline's construction: a project planed to carry gas from Azerbaijan to Turkish western coast.
TANAP project has to became a part of the EU Southern Corridor: a pipelines' system conceived to diversify European gas supplies from the Russian quasi monopoly.
Turkish position in gas deals is extremely important for the European energetic security. If the energetic relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan isn't getting worst, the EU can bet on a gas supplies's diversification concrete possibility.
On the other hand, if Ankara approaches to Moscow to balance the gas supplies fall from Iran, Turkish government risks to have no argues when Russia will officially ask for a Turkey political support of the Southstream pipeline.
The Southstream project is conceived to carry Russian gas o southern-western Europe in order to oppose EU policy on gas supplies diversification by the Southern Corridor realization.
Matteo Cazzulani
