Despite of Russian gas production's fall, Europe is more and more dependent on Moscow gas supplies. The role Turkey has to foster the EU energy security.
Once Russia's gas production decreases, Turkey's role in support to EU energy independence is fostering.
According to WNP info portal, and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak's declarations to RIA Novosti, in 2012 Russia has produced the 2.9% of gas less than in 2011.
Russia gas production's decrease could have consequences for Moscow energy policy towards the EU.
Russia, whose gas supplies cover the 40% of the EU total energy need, aims to keep Europe dependent on Russian gas supplies.
For this reason, national Russian gas major Gazprom has prolonged gas supplies contracts with the most important European energy concerns, giving them a discount to ensure their loyalty.
Russia also planed two pipelines to increase the quantity of Russian gas imported by the European Union.
The Nordstream has been realized in Baltic Sea seabed in order to deliver 55 bcd of Russian gas per year directly to Germany, and bypass several EU countries as Poland and the Baltic States.
The Southstream has been started to carry in Austria 63 bcm of Russian gas per year via the Black Sea seabed, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Slovenia and Italy.
After Southstream's realization, Europe will be more dependent on Russian gas supplies.
In case of Russian gas production's decrease, Moscow will use the two pipelines to deliver to Europe Azerbaijani or Turkmen gas, keeping Europe always dependent on Moscow energy supplies routes.
A fact to demonstrate Russia's real energy plan is Kremlin's opposition to the EU gas supplies diversification project, which has been planed by the European Commission to carry gas from Azerbaijan directly to Europe by the realization of two pipelines.
The Nabucco pipeline has been planed to carry 30 bcm of Azerbaijani gas per year to Austria from Turkey via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.
The Trans Adriatic Pipeline - TAP - will deliver 21 bcm of Azerbaijan's gas per year to Italy from the border between Turkey and Greece through Albania.
In addition to the two pipelines, the European Commission also planed the realization of several LNG terminals to import in Europe liquefied natural gas from Qatar, Norway and the USA.
In its tentative to block the European Commission's energy policy, Russia is supported by several EU states as France and Germany, and by some energy concerns strictly lied with Gazprom, as French Suez Gaz de France and Italian ENI.
However, the European Commission's energy policy is supported by the majority of Central European states and by Turkey.
On the one hand, Ankara will guarantee the flow of gas to Nabucco and TAP by the Trans Anatolian Pipeline - TANAP - realization, which delivers 30 bcd of Azerbaijani gas per year from Georgia to the European part of Turkey.
On the other hand, Turkish government signed an agreement with Algeria to import 6 bcm of LNG per year in next 10 years, and planed with Qatar the realization of a 6 bcd of gas per year LNG terminal in the Aegean Sea which will be used to import liquefied gas also by several EU countries as Bulgaria and Greece.
Matteo Cazzulani
